America on the Watchlist: Why Democracy Monitors Are Warning
The U.S. just joined 39 nations where civic freedoms face documented state interference—and international observers are using words like “rapid authoritarian shift.”
Here’s something that would have sounded absurd a decade ago: the United States has been downgraded to “obstructed” by CIVICUS, the Johannesburg-based alliance that monitors civic freedoms across 198 countries. The announcement came December 9, 2025. It puts America in the same category as Hungary, Brazil, and South Africa—places where civil society technically exists but faces surveillance, harassment, and hostile rhetoric from the government.
Never heard of CIVICUS? Most Americans haven’t. Fewer still expected to see their country flagged by organizations that typically track authoritarianism in distant capitals.
“The backsliding on rule of law and fundamental freedoms in the United States is truly alarming,” said Mandeep Tiwana, CIVICUS Secretary General. “We are witnessing a rapid and systematic attempt to stifle civic freedoms that Americans have come to take for granted.” (TIME, December 10, 2025)
What CIVICUS Actually Measures
CIVICUS rates countries on a five-tier scale: open, narrowed, obstructed, repressed, and closed. The assessments draw from Freedom House data, V-Dem indicators, Reporters Without Borders press freedom scores, and regional civil society partners on the ground.
An “obstructed” rating means civic space is “heavily contested” by authorities who undermine civil society “through the use of illegal surveillance, bureaucratic harassment, and demeaning public statements.” People can still organize peacefully but “remain vulnerable to frequent use of excessive force by law enforcement agencies, including rubber bullets, tear gas, and baton charges.” (Source: Newsweek, December 9, 2025)
This isn’t opinion. It’s based on documented incidents, legal changes, and measurable restrictions on press freedom, assembly, and association.
The global picture is grim. Only 7% of the world’s population now lives in countries with “open” civic space—the lowest since CIVICUS started systematic tracking in 2018. Of the 18 countries with rating changes this year, 15 got worse. Just 3 improved. (Source: CIVICUS Global Findings 2025)
The Evidence Behind the Downgrade
The CIVICUS assessment points to specific, documented patterns. Not abstractions.
Military force against protesters: Authorities “escalated suppression of protesters through military deployments” during anti-ICE demonstrations in Los Angeles this June. The Trump administration federalized California’s National Guard without Governor Newsom’s consent and sent active-duty Marines for crowd control. A federal judge later ruled this violated the Posse Comitatus Act. (Source: CIVICUS Watchlist, July 2025)
Journalists in the crosshairs: Australian journalist Lauren Tomasi was “shot with a rubber bullet while covering anti-ICE protests.” Mario Guevara, a Salvadoran journalist who’d lived legally in the U.S. for 20 years, was arrested while livestreaming a peaceful protest in Georgia. He clearly identified himself as press. Didn’t matter. ICE took custody, held him 108 days after all charges were dropped, and then deported him anyway. The Committee to Protect Journalists counted over 50 incidents of police targeting journalists during the June protests alone. (Source: CIVICUS Watchlist, July 2025)
Student activists detained: The report highlighted Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian graduate student at Columbia who helped negotiate during campus protests. ICE arrested him in the lobby of his university-owned apartment, transported him to Louisiana, and detained him using a Cold War-era provision claiming his presence posed “adverse foreign policy consequences.” He was never charged with anything.
Public broadcasting gutted: Congress voted 216-213 in July to rescind $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. That’s the first successful rollback of pre-approved CPB funding in nearly sixty years. CIVICUS noted this happened as the administration launched “White House Wire,” a government-run news operation pushing favorable coverage. The contrast isn’t subtle. (Source: CIVICUS Watchlist, July 2025)
“The United States appears to be sliding deeper into the quicksands of authoritarianism.” —Mandeep Tiwana, Secretary General, CIVICUS
Not Just CIVICUS
What makes 2025 different isn’t one downgrade. It’s multiple independent organizations using different methods reaching the same conclusions.
The V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, which has measured democracy across 202 countries since 1789, now classifies the United States as an “electoral autocracy.” First time ever in their modern assessments. (Source: Wikipedia—Electoral autocracy)
“At the pace at which it is happening, I would say that before the end of the summer, you no longer qualify as a democracy in the United States,” V-Dem Director Staffan I. Lindberg warned back in March. Their 2025 report identified the U.S. as undergoing “the fastest evolving episode of autocratization the USA has been through in modern history.” (Source: Democracy Without Borders, May 2025)
Freedom House has tracked America dropping from 94 to 83 on its 100-point democracy scale since 2010. The decline sped up during Trump’s first term. It hasn’t slowed.
These organizations aren’t coordinating. They’re measuring independently and landing in the same place.
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What It Means
Democratic backsliding doesn’t arrive with tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue. It shows up through accumulated degradations. A journalist was deported. A protest met with military force. Funding for independent media is slashed while state media expands.
Look at Hungary. Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party transformed that country from a post-communist success story to what the European Parliament declared “no longer a full democracy.” Not through a dramatic coup. Through incremental institutional capture over 14 years. CIVICUS now rates Hungary and the United States identically. Both are “obstructed.”
Political scientist Adam Przeworski put it well: “The combination of wealth and a history of peaceful political transitions may foster a false perception of democratic consolidation”—which leads to reduced vigilance and weaker resistance when erosion actually begins. (Source: International IDEA, Global State of Democracy 2025)
The data suggests that vigilance is overdue.
What’s Next
December 16, 2025: The stay on Judge Charles Breyer’s injunction expires—the one ordering National Guard troops returned to state control. The government’s appeal could set a precedent on military deployment against protesters.
January 2026: Next CIVICUS Monitor update. If the current trajectory holds, a further downgrade to “repressed” becomes possible.
March 2026: V-Dem releases its Democracy Report 2026, the first full quantitative assessment covering the second Trump administration’s first year.
July 4, 2026: America’s 250th anniversary arrives with civic freedoms under international scrutiny. “As the U.S.A. prepares to mark 250 years since the American Revolution, we urge the government to course-correct,” CIVICUS stated. (Source: Truthout, December 2025)
What You Can Do
Understand the methodology. Read the full People Power Under Attack 2025 Report and V-Dem’s Democracy Report. Know what they’re actually measuring.
Document what happens locally. CIVICUS relies on regional civil society partners for ground-level information. When you witness suppression of press freedom, protest, or association in your community, document it. Report it to the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker or ICNL’s US Protest Law Tracker.
Support independent journalism. With public broadcasting defunded, independent media infrastructure matters more than ever. Subscribe to local news. Fund nonprofit journalism.
Show up. Democratic backsliding works when citizens self-censor before anything even happens to them. One graduate student told NPR he no longer protests because “the risk is higher.” That anticipatory silence is precisely what authoritarian tactics are designed to produce.
Methods & Verification
All factual claims were cross-checked against primary sources, including the CIVICUS Monitor 2025 report, V-Dem Institute publications, and news coverage from TIME, Newsweek, and Middle East Eye. Quotes were verified against original organizational statements and published interviews. Statistical claims were confirmed against primary data repositories.